projections

Caroline Matthews of the Better Edmonton (BE) party is projected to be elected in Ward 6 with 46.48% of the votes. Justin Thomas of the PACE party and Ashley Salvador are projected to receive 13.06% and 40.45% of the votes in Ward 6, respectively. These projections are based on lawn signs counted in 10 neighbourhoods located throughout Ward 6.

In Ward 6, Justin Thomas wishes to repeal blanket zoning; whereas, Caroline Matthews wishes to amend blanket zoning (semantics, both Justin and Caroline fundamentally want to change the provisions for the infill and density in Ward 6). Ward 6 only has one serious contender, Ashley Salvador, aiming to use the blanket zoning to add infill and density. Justin and Caroline could potentially split the votes of people who do not want the infill and density foisted on them by Ashley. This would allow the minority of voters in Ward 6 to conceivably elect Ashley despite most voters wanting to repeal or amend blanket zoning.

So, to get a feel for how close the race in Ward 6 is going to be, 315 lawn signs were surveyed in front of homes in one-third of the neighbourhoods. Homes with more than one lawn sign for the same candidate were recorded once even if the multiple lawn signs might have been for multiple people in the home. Lawn signs placed on public property by candidates were ignored. Thousands of homes were surveyed in the 10 neighborhoods listed below. They include the lower, medium and upper income voters to accurately reflect the sentiments of the middle class residents living in Ward 6. The table below gives the percentage of projected votes for Caroline, Justin and Ashley by neighbourhood. The percentages listed for the 10 neighbourhoods are used to calculate the percentage of votes for candidates in all neighbourhoods in Ward 6; 46.48% for Caroline, for example.

analysis

About two-thirds of the home owners don’t vote and the number of voters in each neighbourhood is assumed to be 33.33% of the population for all neighbourhoods listed above. However, if more than 33.33% of the voters in neighbourhoods favouring Ashley vote, Ashley could be elected rather than Caroline. Justin is essentially on the same page as Caroline on infill and density but is projected to receive far fewer votes than Caroline. To lessen the likelihood of Ashley getting elected, it would be prudent for Justin to endorse Caroline and drop out of the race. Surprisingly, Newton above supports Caroline Matthews even though Ashley Salvador lives in Newton. Beacon Heights next to Newton overwhelmingly prefers Caroline as does Highlands nearby. Incidentally, this suggests that people who know Ashley Salvador dislike her. 

News providers censor controversial views related to infill and growth, championed by Ashley, for migrants arriving in Edmonton. Growth in Edmonton is to uphold Canada’s UN commitment to the global compact for migration. Canada signed on to it in 2018. Infill for growth (linked to rising property taxes) for the far too many migrants dumped in Edmonton has led to the following:

  • Frustrating traffic congestion from more vehicles on the roads, 75th Street even on Sundays and holidays, for instance

  • Long waiting lists for public healthcare, shortage of doctors and one way trips to the hospital then to the morgue

  • Rampant crime and graffiti, junkies in social housing, stolen vehicles and police helicopters circling overhead for hours

  • Rising taxes to pay for LRT and $4.3 billion City of Edmonton debt to transport migrants

  • Overcrowded schools and striking teachers stymied by too many illiterate migrants from undeveloped countries

  • Ghettoization of neighbourhoods having well built homes bulldozed to build shoddy rental units for migrants

  • Reduction of home ownership and loss of character in neighbourhoods from rentals units for migrants on welfare

Voters favouring Ashley aren’t connecting the dots to link infill and growth for migrants to the above negative impacts.  It is speculated that this is due to ignorance or complicity.

election

Actual votes by voters in Edmonton's election and projected votes based on lawn signs counted in Ward 6 before the election are tabulated below for Caroline Matthews, Justin Thomas, Ashley Salvador and other candidates. Actual votes are those reported by Edmonton Elections on October 22, 2025. Just three out of 10 eligible voters voted.

In hindsight, if Justin had endorsed Caroline once it became evident that Caroline had far more lawn signs and support than Justin, the major vote split between them could have been averted. The count of lawn signs in front of homes accurately projected the vote split by voters wishing to scrap blanket zoning for rental units in Ward 6. The majority of voters recognized the spin by Ashley and voted for other candidates. Ashley's propagated spin is the depiction of ruinous rental infill for migrant growth as positive to curb urban sprawl and foster sustainable neighbourhoods. Newspeak censored dissenters of Ashley's spin. Voters who might have decided to vote against Ashley's spin were kept blissfully unaware of her spin. Moreover, voters in the minority are the ones who prevailed rather voters in the majority.

To counter this in the future, the Local Authorities Election Act might be amended to allow candidates agreeing with the views of the majority of voters to form a coalition to replace a candidate with less than 50% of the popular vote. Democracy in Canada in recent years has been undermined by a minority of voters who rally around a single candidate who's supposedly "progressive" to split the votes of other candidates representing the dominant views of most voters. Progressives rule in Edmonton, Canada where 1984 is the handbook of Big Brother, the mayor and council elected. Community guidelines for comments on-line in Canada ban the use of the word, migrant or migrants, when referring to anyone from the third world, illiterate and unskilled. Must be called immigrants, to imply skilled and literate. First world.